Related link: http://www.streamingmedia.com/article.asp?id=8605
“Finally, it’s hard to minimize the importance of the DVD Forum’s provisional approval for Microsoft’s VC-9 technology, essentially Windows Media Video 9, along with two other technologies, H.264 and MPEG-2, as mandatory on next-generation playback devices.”
Wow. I just wrapped up the manuscript on my upcoming book on Internet Video where I have a whole chapter on MPEG-4 as a wonderful standards organization, fighting against the forces of proprietariness. However, I began to see the writing on the wall when so many $39 DVD players began playing both .asf and DivX 
movies. It’s not like Microsoft used dirty tricks to force the low-end DVD players to include Windows media - they did it because all the ripped movies were in these formats. Thus, it really was driven by customer demand, and with that DVD foothold, it’s not surprising that the DVD forum has now blessed Windows media .
Another factor working for the ‘proprietary’ Windows media standard is that it has really become a de-facto standard, which is more powerful than a real standard. Video CD, Super Video CD, CD-Text, MP3, all sort of organically have become standards… none blessed by the standards bodies really until after they make good penetration in the marketplace.
A third factor is the speed of computers, and the ability to flash the rom of DVD players, or simply sell new ones. With DVD’s at $12-$25 and DVD players themselves around $39, it’s easy to see how ridiculous the pricing game is. Give away the hardware and sell the software. Thus, the original goal of video standards, to ensure that 1994’s DVD player will play 2004’s DVDs” becomes less relevant when WalMart can practically bundle the DVD player if you buy 5 DVD’s. And, whereas it used to be that a computer couldn’t play MPEG-2, only special hardware chips, the Moore’s law has made it so now it’s easier to make a sort of general-purpose DVD player, which could have a new codec added by updating some software and flashing the ROM. It’s not that customers will flash the ROM for their DVD players - they’ll just go buy new ones. It’s that there’s no cost to the manufacturer to create essentially a brand new product - just software - and voila, you can ship a “NEW” version of your DVD player, this one playing Super-Duper Video CD’s that are MPEG-4 burned to a CD-R, etc. etc. etc.” Thus, the economics of “ship now and patch later” work in the hardware world; you DON’T have to get the unit perfect before you ship it; and new codecs CAN be “downloaded” on demand (by having customer buy a new DVD player).
This may spell doom for MPEG in the mobile space too. While we definitely need to agree for at least 18 months at a time what the current video codec is, Macromedia is aggressively pushing mobile-Flash out to cell phones; Sorenson has it’s MPEG-4 and Non-MPEG-4 codecs both of which make it money; and Microsoft can change it’s codec constantly and pretty much count on all the devices catching up.
Plus, the incentive of hardware vendors *is* to get you to purchase a new device. Thus, a standard that allowed yesteryears device to play today’s content is NOT aligned with the financial incentives of any hardware manufacturer (resulting in landfills full of digital electronic trash). If new, faster codec (software) requires new, faster cellphone (hardware), Nokia and everybody else is delighted - sell new phones
As a recycler with a stack of 1980’s computers that still operate, and printers from the 80’s that still print postscript, it could be really argued that it’s not just MPEG-4, but any large deliberative ’standard’ that could be at risk, because Moore’s law, plus mass consumerism and economies of scale, have reduced the friction of adopting new standards to a minimum.
Hardware is irrelevant now; firmware is king.
Wow.
Software will completely take over hardware eventually, no? Comments?
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